Autumn in Belgrade was cold and windy.
A fresh newspaper lay on the table.
Skoropadskyi unfolded it and read silently for a moment.
The headline was large.
ITALY DECLARES WAR ON THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE
Below the headline were short reports.
The Italian fleet had entered the Mediterranean.
Troops had landed in Tripoli.
Fighting had begun in Libya.
He slowly folded the newspaper.
A few minutes later a diplomat from the mission entered the room.
—"I assume you have already seen the news."
—"Yes."
The diplomat walked toward the window.
—"Italy decided to take advantage of the moment."
—"The Ottoman Empire appears weak."
The diplomat smiled faintly.
—"In Europe they have long called it the sick man."
Skoropadskyi remained silent for a moment.
—"But even sick empires can sometimes be more dangerous than they appear."
The diplomat shrugged.
—"Perhaps. But Libya is far from Istanbul. It will be difficult for the Ottomans to move serious forces there."
Skoropadskyi nodded.
—"That is exactly why Italy chose this moment."
He looked again at the newspaper.
—"This is not simply a colonial war."
—"You think so?"
—"Yes."
A brief pause followed.
—"It is a signal."
The diplomat looked at him closely.
—"A signal to whom?"
—"To everyone."
Skoropadskyi said calmly:
—"If the Ottoman Empire can be attacked without serious consequences, others besides Rome will notice."
The diplomat slowly nodded.
—"The Balkans."
—"Exactly."
That evening Skoropadskyi went to the officers' club.
The hall was filled with tobacco smoke and quiet conversations. Serbian officers sat at the tables. Some were reading newspapers while others discussed the news.
When he entered several men stood up.
—"Colonel Skoropadskyi."
—"Good evening."
Within a few minutes the conversation became lively again.
One officer held a newspaper in his hand.
—"The Italians have already landed in Tripoli."
Another said:
—"The Ottomans will not be able to send an army there quickly."
A third added:
—"The sea is controlled by the Italian fleet."
Skoropadskyi listened calmly.
Then one of the officers turned to him.
—"You have served in war. How do you think this conflict will end?"
Skoropadskyi did not answer immediately.
—"Most likely with an Italian victory."
—"So quickly?"
—"Yes."
He paused.
—"The Ottoman Empire is too stretched."
An officer nodded.
—"And too slow in making decisions."
Skoropadskyi said:
—"Empires rarely die because of a single defeat."
He looked at the map on the wall.
—"They die when they stop keeping up with events."
The room fell silent.
One of the younger officers said:
—"If Italy can fight the Ottomans, then the Balkans can as well."
The senior officer raised his hand.
—"Not so fast."
But there was no full certainty in his voice.
Skoropadskyi noticed it.
Sometimes more can be heard in conversations than in official statements.
A few days later new reports arrived.
Italian aircraft were being used for reconnaissance.
One of them had even dropped a bomb.
The officers' club again discussed the news.
—"Aeroplanes in war?"
—"That sounds strange."
—"Toys."
Skoropadskyi said calmly:
—"All new weapons are first considered toys."
The officers looked at him.
—"Do you think it is serious?"
—"Not yet."
He paused.
—"But technology changes war faster than generals do."
One of the officers said:
—"If aircraft can observe armies from above..."
Another added:
—"Then it will become much harder to hide troop movements."
Skoropadskyi nodded.
—"And that will change strategy."
The room fell silent again.
Sometimes the most important changes begin with things that at first seem insignificant.
Meanwhile, in another city, a conversation was taking place about which only a few in Belgrade knew.
A small house stood on a quiet street.
The windows were closed with shutters.
A lamp burned inside the room.
Several men sat around the table.
Representatives of different countries.
Serbia.
Bulgaria.
Greece.
Montenegro.
A map of the Balkans lay on the table.
One of those present said:
—"Italy has attacked the Ottoman Empire."
A Bulgarian officer replied:
—"This is only the beginning."
The Serbian representative said:
—"The Ottomans are weakening."
A Greek diplomat added:
—"But that is not the main question."
He pointed at the map.
—"The question is who will take their place."
For a moment everyone remained silent.
Then the Bulgarian ran his finger across the map.
—"Thrace."
The Serbian replied:
—"Macedonia."
The Greek said:
—"The Aegean coast."
The conversation began to grow tense.
The Bulgarian said:
—"Macedonia is historically connected with Bulgaria."
The Serbian answered:
—"Serbs live there."
The Greek smiled faintly.
—"And Greeks."
The room became quiet.
Finally the representative of Montenegro said:
—"First we must defeat the Ottomans."
Everyone looked at him.
He continued:
—"Without that, discussions about borders are meaningless."
The Bulgarian slowly nodded.
—"Perhaps."
The Serbian said:
—"But if we begin a war, it must be fast."
The Greek added:
—"And coordinated."
A pencil lay on the table.
Someone picked it up and drew a line on the map.
—"Zones of operations."
The Serbian said:
—"Our armies can move south."
The Bulgarian added:
—"And ours to the east."
The Greek said:
—"The fleet can operate in the Aegean Sea."
Gradually the discussion became more concrete.
They talked about:
armies
railways
mobilization
public support
One of the participants said:
—"If the Ottoman Empire loses to Italy..."
He paused.
—"The Balkans may change the map of Europe."
No one objected.
In Belgrade, Skoropadskyi received information about such conversations only indirectly.
Diplomats sometimes spoke cautiously.
Newspapers hinted at things.
But an experienced officer knew how to read between the lines.
One evening he walked again along the river embankment.
The Danube was dark and calm.
On the other side of the river began the lands of Austria‑Hungary.
He looked at the water and thought.
The Italo‑Ottoman War was taking place far away.
But its consequences could change the fate of the Balkans.
Sometimes wars began on the edges of empires.
But they ended in the very center of Europe.
Skoropadskyi stood silently for a while looking at the river.
He understood that events were only beginning.
And ahead, the Balkans were waiting for years of war.