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Chapter 145 - Chapter 30.6 : The Arithmetic of Certainty

The Goblins' betting desk was not on the main floor.

It occupied a suite of rooms accessed through a side passage off the second sub-level corridor, behind a door marked only with a small brass Snitch in mid-catch that most visitors walked past without registering. The suite had the quality of Gringotts in miniature — stone walls, low light, the particular silence of things being taken seriously.

The Goblin behind the desk was not Gritneck. He was older, with the flat attentiveness of someone who had been behind this desk for a long time and had seen most configurations of human financial ambition.

Ron placed his account documentation on the desk. Alongside it, a handwritten summary: five accounts named, the amounts for each, the match schedule, the odds he considered fair, and the compounding structure.

The Goblin read it without speaking.

'I am aware,' Ron said, 'that there may be a question about the source of my information. I am also aware that your regulations distinguish between fabricated information and foreknowledge. I have consulted the relevant statutes.'

The Goblin looked at him. 'You are fourteen.'

'Yes,' Ron said. 'I understand the position appetite may be limited for a new account. I'm here to establish what the appetite is.'

'For a first-time account holder,' the Goblin said, 'the maximum per-event position is three thousand Galleons per named account. You have five accounts. Fifteen thousand per match.' He paused, doing the arithmetic with the speed that made Goblins very good at their work. 'Against a full tournament schedule, your maximum total exposure across all positions is considerable. But for each individual event, the per-account cap applies.'

Ron looked at the number.

He had sixty-two thousand more in the pool than the five accounts could deploy on any single event at the three-thousand cap. The group stage, however, ran many matches simultaneously — eighteen he was confident in, across the full bracket. The cap was per event. Each match was a separate event. The constraint was not as limiting as it had first appeared.

He thought about this for a moment.

'What is the maximum for a second-time account holder?' he said.

The Goblin regarded him. 'Five thousand per event. Per account.'

'After a successful settlement on the group stage,' Ron said, 'and assuming no irregularities identified, would it be possible to reclassify the accounts before the semi-final positions are lodged?'

A silence. The Goblin's expression was the expression of someone encountering a fourteen-year-old who was conducting the conversation with the procedural fluency of a professional and was deciding what to make of it.

'If the initial positions settle cleanly,' the Goblin said, 'the reclassification may be requested. I make no guarantees. It requires review by the desk manager.'

'I understand,' Ron said. 'I would like to lodge the group stage positions now, at the three thousand per account maximum. And I would like to discuss the remainder with you directly after settlement.'

The Goblin opened the ledger.

'We will examine the positions after each settlement,' he said. 'If the outcomes are as you predict, with the consistency you appear to anticipate, we will want to discuss the nature of your information.'

'I would expect that,' Ron said. 'I have not violated your statutes or any Ministry regulations I am aware of. You will find the documentation in order.'

The Goblin looked at him for a long moment with the flat, thorough attention of a creature whose institution had been assessing humans for longer than the current legal framework had existed.

'We will open the accounts,' he said, and returned to the ledger.

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