Alan saw Dumbledore direct the question to him, and after a moment of consideration, he replied, "First, the most likely scenario is that the information is false. It was obtained from a student, and I can't be certain of its validity. Even if the boy was being honest about what he heard, it's entirely possible his elders were simply boasting or exaggerating to impress him."
"Oh?" Dumbledore looked at him with renewed interest. "Then why did you feel the need to pass the message to us?"
"It's better to be cautious. Even if the information proves hollow, being prepared has no negative impact. But if it is true, and my friends are put in danger because I stayed silent, the self-reproach would be endless," Alan replied steadily.
"Resourceful and cautious. You handled this very well, Alan." Dumbledore nodded to him before turning to the others. "In truth, I have received similar reports from other channels, which is why I called this specific meeting to discuss our response."
*So that's it,* Alan thought. He had wondered why Dumbledore took the word of a first-year so seriously without further verification. It seemed the Headmaster had his own methods of intelligence. He wondered what those sources were—prophetic magic, or perhaps a spy embedded deep within the Death Eaters' ranks?
The others in the room wore expressions of sudden clarity.
"Then it seems a Christmas strike is a genuine possibility," Edgar Bones said, stroking his thick sideburns. "We just don't know the nature of the target. Are they planning a large-scale assault, or are they hunting isolated individuals?"
"The chances of them picking off individuals are slim," Gideon Prewett noted after a moment. "With the holidays approaching, everyone is spending their time at home with their families. People aren't wandering out alone as much."
"Then we must ensure everyone is reminded to maintain high personal security during the break!" Moody growled.
The group murmured their agreement.
"If they are planning something larger, the most logical time to strike is when people gather," Emmeline Vance said softly. "Are there any significant gatherings planned for the holidays?"
"Yes," Gideon Prewett said cheerfully. "Fabian and I are planning to head to the Burrow before the twenty-fifth to celebrate with my sister, Molly, and her husband, Arthur."
Sirius added, "Remus, Peter, Alan, and I are all attending a dinner at the Potters' house."
Dumbledore spoke in a grave tone, "There are also the Longbottom and MacKinnon families; they are both large clans, and their gatherings will involve a significant number of people."
Moody, hearing the list of festive family plans, gave a dry snort. "Ha! I'll be spending my Christmas alone at the Ministry. It seems I'm the only one who's truly safe."
Alan found the idea of Mad-Eye Moody having a sense of humor unexpectedly absurd. He lowered his head, covering his mouth to hide a silent laugh.
"What are you smirking at, kid? Living alone is a hell of a lot simpler than keeping track of a whole family," Moody said, though he softened his fierce expression when he saw Alan wasn't backing down.
"I actually agree with you," Alan said, composed once more. "I've lived alone for many years. It isn't nearly as bad as people imagine."
Moody seemed caught off guard by the boy's earnestness. He smacked his lips awkwardly and turned back to Dumbledore. "Most of the Ministry staff will be on leave, Aurors included. The Department of Magical Accidents and Catastrophes will be a skeleton crew. If no one is monitoring magical fluctuations in London and a strike happens, we'll be too slow to mobilize."
Dumbledore grew quiet, weighing the problem. Christmas was the perfect window for an ambush; people would be distracted by the festivities, and the Ministry's response time would be at its weakest. If they didn't act now, they would be walking into a massacre.
"This is incredibly frustrating. Are we stuck playing defense?" Sirius asked impatiently. "Why don't we take the fight to them first?"
"Patience, Sirius," Dumbledore said firmly. "Initiating a conflict now would only drive the neutral parties toward the Dark Lord, leaving us even more vulnerable. And, to be quite frank, I am not entirely confident in my ability to defeat him in a direct confrontation at this moment."
Alan was startled. If even Dumbledore lacked the confidence to face Voldemort, how powerful had the Dark Lord become?
"I will find a way to manage the Ministry's response," Dumbledore told the group. "Sirius, take Alan home and prepare for the holidays. We are aware of the threat now, and that is half the battle. Just remain vigilant. Bad things do not always have to happen, after all."
Sirius scratched his head in annoyance but followed the instruction, leading Alan out of the basement. The remaining five members stayed behind to continue their discussion.
"Albus, you have a theory, don't you?" Edgar Bones asked. As a founder of the Order, he knew Dumbledore's patterns well.
Dumbledore offered a small, tired smile. "Yes. I have received intel from a source I trust implicitly. I am certain an attack is coming, but I have a deeper concern."
"Which is?"
Moody watched the door where Sirius had exited, his magical eye spinning. He seemed to have caught Dumbledore's drift.
"Do you know why I only asked the five of you to stay?" Dumbledore asked quietly. "I suspect we have a leak within the Order. Our members' addresses are supposed to be secret, yet the Death Eaters find them with terrifying ease."
"You think there's a traitor among us?" Gideon Prewett asked, looking shocked.
"Is that why you sent Sirius away early?" Edgar Bones asked.
A specific suspicion began to form in the minds of everyone present, but Dumbledore raised a hand.
"I do not doubt Sirius's loyalty for a second," Dumbledore said slowly. "But his temperament is not suited for keeping secrets. If there is a mole, I would rather Sirius not be the one to accidentally tip them off that we are onto them."
"Do you have a suspect?" Moody growled. "I'll bet my last Sickle on Mundungus Fletcher. The man would sell his own mother if the price was right."
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