Chapter 445: Locust Plague and Taking Advantage of Crisis
After the wedding, Ernst had plenty of matters to deal with. The overall progress of the railway and factory construction was steady, while the canal and riverworks were being supervised by Constantino.
"Your Highness, this is a telegram from the Northern Province. According to the local government, a locust plague has broken out in the neighboring Sultanate of Wasangali."
Ernst took the telegram and read through it: "Ah, this again... Let me see—desert locusts. Our old friends."
Calling them "old friends" wasn't an exaggeration. Ernst had dealt with desert locusts in his previous life—especially during his time working in Tanzania—and he'd been baffled by the way the internet and media sensationalized them as some sort of apocalyptic scourge.
One of the most absurd rumors came in 2020: that desert locusts had crossed the Red Sea into India and were on their way to East Asia.
Never mind whether the locusts could even survive in East Asia's environment—the real source of that particular outbreak wasn't Africa, but the Arabian Peninsula. Yet unscrupulous media published images from Kenya and Somalia, misleading the public into believing the locusts had come from Africa and crossed the Red Sea into India.
Yes, the swarm had crossed the Red Sea—but it had jumped from Arabia into Somalia and Kenya, not the other way around. The real origin was the Rub' al Khali Desert, shared by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Yemen. Saudi and the UAE, wealthy as they are, did nothing. Yemen was in civil war and couldn't spray insecticides, so the locusts reproduced unchecked and caused a once-in-a-century disaster. Africa was the victim, not the culprit.
Somalia, already suffering from famine, was hit hardest. Kenya fared a bit better, but both countries were severely affected. For already struggling families, the plague made things even worse.
The name says it all—desert locusts primarily inhabit desert and semi-desert areas. They may also affect transitional zones between desert and grassland. In large outbreaks, their range can expand further—but even then, "impact" doesn't always mean "disaster."
Their range includes all of North Africa (the Sahara), the Red Sea coast, the Arabian Peninsula, the northwestern arid zones of the Indian subcontinent, and the Horn of Africa.
In East Africa, potentially affected regions include Turkana Province (Ethiopian Highlands), the Northern and Juba Provinces (Somalia), the Eastern and South Prussian Provinces (Kenya), Uganda, South Sudan, and parts of Tanzania.
Note that only parts of these areas are vulnerable—specifically the transition zones between semi-arid and semi-humid climates.
Desert locusts don't adapt well to humid southern climates—and that's fortunate. Still, East Africa had over a million square kilometers of potential risk zones (primarily desert, semi-desert, and arid grassland), so precautions were essential.
"Notify the Ministry of Agriculture. Ensure pest control centers across the north are on high alert. Prevent the plague from spreading and reduce its impact on us—especially in the Eastern and South Prussian Provinces. Use our population advantage. We must hold the line."
East Africa couldn't solve the locust issue—at least not yet. The best it could do was mitigate the effects.
Ernst did have a comprehensive solution, but it couldn't be deployed—primarily because East Africa's Somali population was too small.
The most effective way to deal with locusts was advanced technology—something East Africa lacked. The next best was mass mobilization: organizing large groups to manually exterminate the swarms.
But with only 300,000 people in Somali territories and more than 100,000 square kilometers of desert, it was unthinkable to send everyone into the wilderness to destroy locust egg sites.
Biological control wasn't much use either. Desert locusts lived in barren environments. Tactics like releasing chickens or ducks were ineffective—who raises poultry in the desert?
Likewise, most other natural predators couldn't survive in deserts either. Once desert locusts reached plague levels, the only real solution was modern technology.
Still, East Africa wasn't doing nothing. While Somali regions had low populations, Kenya had many—especially in the populous south, a vital cotton and coffee region. That's where the focus would be.
The government would monitor swarm paths and use manual interventions in egg-laying zones—plowing, burning, flooding, and other proven methods.
In fact, once the locusts reached the East African highlands, their momentum would be significantly weakened. The terrain and climate created natural barriers.
For example, desert locusts are highly dependent on wind direction and typically fly downwind. Much of East Africa is dominated by southeast trade winds, meaning swarms would have to fly against the wind to enter the highlands.
Moreover, as elevation increases, temperatures drop—yet desert locusts thrive in high heat, especially 40°C+ conditions. That's why they don't migrate to higher latitudes like Europe.
Thus, when desert locusts broke out in northern East Africa, most would be redirected toward the Arabian Peninsula and Indian subcontinent by southwest monsoon winds.
Since this outbreak was in northern Somalia, East Africa only needed to safeguard key agricultural regions in Kenya. As for the Somali provinces under East African control—those were at the mercy of fate.
The worst-case scenario? Somali banana exports to Europe might become more expensive. Once the plague passed, replanting would be easy—climate was consistent year-round, and with the Shebelle and Juba Rivers for irrigation, crops could be replanted at any time.
"Begin food dispatch planning. Ensure food security in the Somali regions. Also, coordinate with our traders and the merchants in Zanzibar. If this locust outbreak spreads to the Middle East, we need to move quickly—fill the gap and seize the grain market."
If the Middle East was hit, it would be great news for East Africa. Ernst wouldn't mind seeing "blessings" like this every year. Compared to the losses, East Africa's northern regions didn't matter much.
Ernst had never heavily invested in agriculture there. Over 80% of Somali food was shipped in from Dar es Salaam and Mombasa.
With little investment, there was little to lose. Bananas were important to Somalia, yes—but other regions could grow them too. They weren't irreplaceable.
Currently, East African agricultural regions were divided into three major zones: the East African Highlands wheat region, the coastal rice belt, and the Great Lakes region, which was multipurpose and planted a variety of crops.
Other zones included Zambia, Zimbabwe, Turkana Province, the Northern Pastures, and the rubber plantations of the Mitumba Mountains. Somalia (Northern and Juba Provinces) came last.
In short, the main grain and cash crop regions wouldn't be affected by the locusts. In a free-market country, such a disaster would be catastrophic.
But the Kingdom of East Africa wasn't a free-market economy. Losses in affected regions were covered by the state. That meant no bankrupt farmers—and no unrest.
The Middle East, on the other hand, wasn't so lucky. Major agricultural losses would be a nightmare for the Ottoman Empire and Egypt.
Ernst even unkindly hoped that this locust outbreak would hit northwestern India (modern-day ****), a major wheat-producing region. That would allow East Africa to claim more of the global grain market.
Of course, that was just wishful thinking. Once-in-a-century locust plagues didn't happen every year.
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