Chapter 442: The East African Threat Theory
Due to its geographical location, East Africa often gives off an impression of being overlooked—a result of empirical thinking and habitual bias. Under this mindset, no one takes Africa seriously. The most typical example of this is the current United States.
The U.S. enjoys a highly favorable geographic position and excellent conditions, yet—even as the second most developed nation after Britain—it still doesn't quite fit its global status. Its political influence is largely confined to the Americas, with Mexico and various Caribbean nations orbiting around it.
This stems from a widespread perception that no world powers have ever emerged from the Americas. Take the Black Ships incident, for example: it was the U.S. that opened Japan's doors, yet Japan chose to model its navy after Britain and its army after Prussia—completely ignoring the U.S.
The belief that the U.S. Army is weak is nearly unanimous. Given the country's vast territory and population, it should logically be stronger than Britain's. Yet its lack of development stems largely from weak neighbors like Mexico and Canada.
If even mighty America can't put real pressure on Europe, then tiny East Africa surely can't either—or so people think.
But just because Europe doesn't feel East Africa's rise doesn't mean its neighbors don't.
When the Archduke Ferdinand sailed past the waters of Dar es Salaam, it was spotted by Portuguese personnel stationed there.
As East Africa's closest neighbor, Mozambique paid close attention to its development. They had people stationed in Dar es Salaam specifically to gather intelligence.
"Is that... an East African warship?"
Seeing the East African flag flying on the Archduke Ferdinand, the Portuguese were stunned.
"If that's really an East African ironclad, then we've got serious trouble. That level of warship would challenge even our mainland fleet!"
Since East Africa annexed northern South Africa, Mozambique had realized it was surrounded—bordered by East Africa on three sides, with only the ocean to the east. Now East African naval patrols had even begun (in reality, this was just redeployment to New Hamburg port).
Previously, Mozambique didn't see East Africa's naval strength as a threat—even in the Indian Ocean. But with a top-tier ironclad like the Archduke Ferdinand, the equation changed.
"This must be reported to the Governor. If this ironclad really belongs to East Africa, then the kingdom's strength is terrifying!"
They already felt outmatched on land—if they lost naval superiority too, Mozambique would become a juicy morsel for East Africa.
Since Brazil's independence, Portugal's two most important colonies were Mozambique and Angola. Mozambique once faced two potential threats: Britain and East Africa. Now, only East Africa remained.
"Those Germans have developed way too fast. I heard Angola also borders East Africa now. That means even the Atlantic coast is no longer safe for us."
"They even took the Transvaal and Zulu kingdoms—practically snatching them from Britain's jaws!"
"And if this ironclad really belongs to East Africa, it shows they can afford to buy more ships from Europe. Judging by the displacement, it's at least 5,000 tons—maybe even 7,000. That's not cheap. If they can afford this, they can definitely buy smaller ones too."
"No doubt. In recent years, East Africa has bought numerous coastal defense boats—they're clearly building a naval force. The Germans aren't just after Africa; they're eyeing the western Indian Ocean."
"East Africa is destabilizing the African balance—and Europe doesn't even see it. Someone must check their rise. Otherwise, we'll end up with another America. What's next—an African version of the Monroe Doctrine?"
Easy to say when you're not the one doing the work. East Africa's rise wasn't handed to it. In fact, its starting point was far worse than Portugal's.
Portugal had already connected Angola and Mozambique via trade routes before East Africa even existed. If they had shown a bit more drive, East Africa wouldn't have overtaken them or taken control of the continent's interior.
To be fair, East Africa also sees Portugal as a threat. With Angola to the west and Mozambique to the east, Portugal effectively boxed them in.
If Portugal had prioritized developing those colonies over the past few years, things could have gone differently. But everyone knows the reality in Lisbon. They're quick to extract wealth from colonies but won't invest a dime in them—Portugal itself could barely pay its own bills.
But the Portuguese didn't see it that way. To them, East Africa's rise was a direct threat. Sure, they hadn't developed their colonies—but that was normal. Who treats colonies like their own homeland?
"Recently, there've been more ships sailing from Europe to East Africa—mostly carrying steel. This suggests East Africa is undergoing massive infrastructure development. Once that stops, it means they've fully digested the interior."
"What's all that steel for?"
"My guess—railways."
"Railways? Really?"
"Anyone with working ears can hear the train whistles on Dar es Salaam's outskirts. That sound is unique to trains. Even if East Africa is closed off, it's obvious—they have railways. I dare say it's the only railway-equipped nation south of the Sahara."
"And don't forget—Germany has gone wild with railway construction in Europe. Their utility in warfare was proven in the Austro-Prussian and Franco-Prussian wars. So it makes perfect sense that East Africa values them too. Besides, only railways could use that much steel."
"So how would East Africa build railways?"
"We can infer based on their territory. Others might not know, but we've got a rough idea. They already occupied the Transvaal and Zulu kingdoms. From East Africa to South Africa is at least 2,000 kilometers. What kind of transportation can truly connect those areas?"
"Are you paying for it?"
"Yeah."
"Idiot. You think Africa's like America or Europe? You want to connect East Africa to South Africa? Do you know how much that costs? And build it for natives? You'll never see a return. Not for centuries!"
"If you ask me, East Africa will stick to coastal lines. Building a transnational railway would be pure charity—unless the Hechingen royal family is feeling particularly generous. But even charity has limits. No country can stomach that expense. Unless you convince someone like the Rothschilds to invest—but they're no fools. Unless East Africa has gold."
Well... East Africa does have gold. But they either don't mine it, or if they do, it never reaches the international market. Global capitalists are like bloodhounds—if a flood of gold hit the market, they'd trace it back in no time.
That's why East Africa exports mostly agricultural products. If you tell Europeans there's gold, they'll swim over themselves. But ask them to farm, and Africa's not even in their top ten. That's the benefit of Africa's infamous reputation—a harsh truth distilled from centuries of blood, sweat, and tears by countless explorers.
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