Seoul, Republic of Korea.
With President Kim Jae-chun seated at the center, government ministers were gathered around the large conference table in the Blue House's main meeting room.
The meeting had already been going on for over an hour, and every attendee wore a grave expression.
After the long briefing by Director Cho Yong-hyun of the National Intelligence Service, a former three-star general with sharp eyes, President Kim Jae-chun leaned back against his chair as if fatigued and spoke.
"So you're saying the United States is planning to attack Iraq again in the near future?"
Director Cho Yong-hyun, who had finished speaking and returned to his seat, nodded heavily.
"That's correct. As I mentioned earlier, through senior Taliban officials captured in Afghanistan, the CIA has obtained information that Iraq not only provided the Taliban with various weapons and funds, but is also secretly producing weapons of mass destruction banned by the United Nations."
Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Cheon Byung-soo frowned and interjected.
"With just that, can we really conclude that Iraq is producing and hiding biological and chemical weapons like anthrax?"
At the sharp question, Director Cho Yong-hyun replied calmly.
"That's true. Which is why the United States, using not only satellite surveillance but also Iraqi defectors and internal collaborators, has closely analyzed intelligence gathered through multiple channels and reached the conclusion that Iraq is concealing weapons of mass destruction."
President Kim Jae-chun asked, his arms crossed,
"And what is the National Intelligence Service's assessment?"
"To be honest, based on the information we currently have, we have not been able to confirm whether Iraq, under UN economic sanctions, is actually manufacturing and stockpiling weapons of mass destruction in secret."
At the unexpected statement, a murmur spread among those in attendance, but Director Cho Yong-hyun continued speaking calmly in an even tone.
"However, during the Iran–Iraq War, the Iraqi military used mustard gas, killing around twenty thousand people. Then again, in 1988, they used chemical weapons on Kurdish villages, which were internal opposition strongholds, killing more than five thousand innocent civilians."
"My God…"
"Good heavens."
The people gathered in the conference room widened their eyes in shock.
"Because of this history, even during the previous Gulf War, the coalition forces' greatest concern before launching ground operations was the possibility of biological and chemical attacks by the Iraqi military."
Director Cho Yong-hyun shrugged slightly.
"Of course, Iraq did not go so far as to commit the madness of using biological or chemical weapons against a coalition force that included the United States. However, when you put all of these circumstances together, there is more than enough reason to suspect that Iraq has concealed weapons of mass destruction while evading the eyes of the U.S. and the United Nations."
At that, Defense Minister Ahn Yong-guk, who was seated across from him, cautiously added his opinion.
"It's an open secret that North Korea, which has possessed large quantities of biological and chemical weapons since the 1980s, has maintained some form of cooperative relationship with Iraq for a very long time. And considering how easy it is to produce biological and chemical weapons, to the point where even facilities used to brew draft beer could be repurposed, I believe it's a suspicion worth taking seriously as well."
Director Cho Yong-hyun looked toward President Kim Jae-chun, who sat at the head of the table, and spoke.
"Even if, contrary to suspicion, Iraq turns out not to be hiding any weapons of mass destruction, the fact that it supported the forces behind the 9/11 attacks alone makes war virtually inevitable."
Beside the grim-faced President Kim Jae-chun, Chief of Staff Woo Chun-il added quietly,
"On top of that, there's clearly an underlying motive to use this opportunity to finish the war his father couldn't and tighten control over Middle Eastern oil."
"That's probably true."
President Kim Jae-chun gave a small nod and spoke with a frown.
"If that's the case, international oil prices will surge again, just like during the last Gulf War."
Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Cheon Byung-soo nodded with a worried expression.
"Considering that most of the crude oil and natural gas we use is imported from the Middle East, if the war drags on or the regional situation fails to stabilize quickly, the damage will be enormous."
President Kim Jae-chun shifted his gaze to Minister Noh Ho-gyun of the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and asked,
"If the United States really goes to war, how high do you think oil prices will rise?"
Minister Noh adjusted his horn-rimmed glasses, thought for a moment, and then answered,
"Based on West Texas Intermediate, the current price is around 27 dollars per barrel. It could surge as high as 75 dollars."
"That's an increase of over 170%."
When President Kim Jae-chun asked back with a startled expression, Minister Noh Ho-gyun glanced around and replied cautiously,
"That's a conservative estimate. Depending on how things unfold, we can't rule out the possibility of prices skyrocketing even further."
"Ghh…"
President Kim Jae-chun squeezed his eyes shut and let out a pained groan.
The other attendees also looked deeply shaken, murmuring among themselves as they exchanged glances.
If international oil prices were to surge this dramatically, it would be nothing short of a fatal blow for Korea, which imported 100 percent of the crude oil it needed from abroad.
Prime Minister Seo Gyeong-won leaned forward, his face having gone pale.
"After only just clawing our way out of the foreign exchange crisis, if we're hit by a shock like this, the Korean economy will stagger badly once again."
President Kim Jae-chun furrowed his brow deeply and tapped the table with his finger.
"If international oil prices spike as they did during the oil shocks, even the United States won't be able to avoid the impact. Surely they wouldn't launch a war recklessly knowing that, would they?"
He looked at Minister Noh Ho-gyun with a sliver of hope, but the minister's expression remained grim.
"Of course, the United States will try to prevent oil prices from skyrocketing by releasing strategic petroleum reserves and pressuring OPEC member countries, including Saudi Arabia, to increase oil production."
President Kim Jae-chun's expression, which had just begun to ease slightly, tightened again at the continuation.
"However, the strategic reserves being released won't be enough even to meet domestic demand in the United States. And since the war would be taking place in the Middle East, where many OPEC member states are concentrated, likely that increasing oil production won't be easy."
"Ghh… So in the end, oil prices are bound to rise no matter what."
"I regret to say that's correct."
Minister Noh Ho-gyun replied while averting his gaze like a guilty man.
Letting out a deep sigh, President Kim Jae-chun raised one hand and pressed it against his throbbing forehead.
"Hah… This isn't just shrimp getting crushed when whales fight. This is turning into a real headache."
At that, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Cheon Byung-soo cautiously spoke up, watching President Kim Jae-chun's expression.
"At this point, there's really only one countermeasure we can take."
"And what would that be?"
"We need to maximize our strategic reserves by mobilizing not only the facilities operated by the Korea National Oil Corporation, but also every private storage tank available."
It was an obvious measure, but as Cheon Byung-soo said, a country like Korea, where not a single drop of oil was produced domestically, had very limited options.
President Kim Jae-chun straightened his posture and asked.
"How much strategic oil do we currently have stockpiled?"
Minister Noh Ho-gyun, the head of the responsible ministry, stepped in to answer.
"We currently have 480 million barrels on hand, which amounts to about sixty days' worth. As for privately held reserves, we'd need to check the exact figures, but they're estimated to be around 80 million barrels."
At the lower-than-expected amount, President Kim Jae-chun frowned. Prime Minister Seo Gyeong-won quickly cut in, his tone almost reproachful.
"Aren't we supposed to maintain ninety days' worth of strategic reserves at all times?"
"That is the policy, but during the foreign exchange crisis, when the exchange rate surged and importing crude oil became difficult, a significant portion of the reserves was drawn down and used."
President Kim Jae-chun spoke with irritation creeping into his voice.
"If you used it, you should have refilled it to the original level. What on earth have you been doing all this time?"
Minister Noh Ho-gyun hurriedly explained, looking troubled.
"That's true, but even though the domestic economy has recovered quite a bit, conditions are still difficult. And above all, repaying the IMF loans was given priority, so purchasing additional strategic reserves was pushed down the list."
In order to exit the IMF program as quickly as possible, the government had slashed or postponed any budget items that were not immediately urgent.
Even major defense procurement budgets, including the next-generation fighter project, had been cut in half without hesitation, so it was only natural that purchasing strategic oil reserves, which required spending huge amounts of dollars on crude oil, had been pushed to the back of the line.
Since the one who had issued those directives was none other than President Kim Jae-chun himself, he could not bring himself to vent his anger and could only let out a low murmur.
"Hmm."
At that moment, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Cheon Byung-soo stepped in to steady the mood.
"…We can't change what's already been done. Right now, what matters is deciding how to respond going forward."
He paused briefly, then continued.
"First, we need to immediately secure additional storage capacity and begin purchasing crude oil on the international market as much as possible. Even if prices rise, delaying will only make things worse."
"Fortunately, the war hasn't broken out yet. If that's the case, shouldn't we stockpile as much crude oil as possible before it does?"
"Hoo. Looks like that's the only option."
Letting out a quiet sigh, President Kim Jae-chun looked at Minister Noh Ho-gyun and issued an order.
"Starting today, mobilize the Korea National Oil Corporation and every private storage facility without leaving a single one out, and purchase as much crude oil as possible."
"Yes. Understood."
President Kim Jae-chun then turned his head and directed his gaze toward Prime Minister Seo Gyeong-won.
"Prime Minister Seo, gather all available budget funds and make sure they can be used to support the purchase of strategic oil reserves."
Fully aware of how serious the situation was, Prime Minister Seo Gyeong-won accepted the order without objection.
"I will do so."
President Kim Jae-chun looked around at everyone gathered and spoke firmly.
"If the war drags on, or if oil fields suffer serious damage like during the last Gulf War, the surge in oil prices could become prolonged. Prepare additional countermeasures as well, such as implementing odd-even vehicle restrictions or reducing energy supply to amusement parks and leisure facilities."
"…Yes."
"We will do so."
As if one mountain led straight into another, a new economic crisis loomed the moment the IMF foreign exchange crisis had finally been overcome, and every attendee wore an expression heavy with worry.
President Kim Jae-chun, too, lamented the stifling situation with no clear solution in sight.
"Every time something happens in the Middle East, we end up on edge like this. Being a country without oil is truly miserable."
The others nodded in agreement, their faces reflecting the same sentiment.
Just then, a light knock sounded, and a secretary opened the door and stepped inside.
Seeing this, Chief of Staff Woo Chun-il frowned and asked in an irritated tone,
"What is it?"
"I have something to report."
Despite the secretary's respectful demeanor, Chief of Staff Woo Chun-il fixed him with an even more reproachful glare.
"Didn't I say not to interrupt the meeting unless it was urgent?"
"Yes, sir, but this concerns Chairman Park Seok-won…"
President Kim Jae-chun, who had instructed that anything related to Seok-won be reported immediately, showed interest.
"What is it, then?"
"The consulate in Vladivostok has informed us that Blue Energy, owned by Chairman Park Seok-won, has discovered a large offshore oil field near Sakhalin."
"…..!"
President Kim Jae-chun, who had been discussing countermeasures against soaring international oil prices just moments ago, widened his eyes in shock.
The other attendees were no less stunned. In an instant, every gaze in the room turned toward President Kim Jae-chun and the secretary.
"Did you say Chairman Park has discovered an oil field?"
"Yes, sir. It's said to be a large-scale oil field with estimated reserves exceeding one billion barrels."
"Hoo…"
Letting out a breath that sounded like an exclamation, President Kim Jae-chun's eyes gleamed as a thought flashed through his mind.
"Wait. Didn't Chairman Park say last time that if he found oil and natural gas in Sakhalin, we could import it at a lower price than bringing it in from the Middle East?"
"He definitely said that."
Chief of Staff Woo Chun-il answered quickly from beside him.
"Even if it takes time before commercial production begins, simply securing a new source of supply outside the Middle East would be a huge boost to our energy security."
Minister Noh Ho-gyun said, his face flushed with excitement.
"My goodness. If that's the case…"
"For something like this to happen at a moment we need it most."
"That Chairman Park fellow, does he have some kind of gift for turning everything he touches into gold? He never seems to fail."
All the cabinet members gathered around the table buzzed with excitement, unable to hide their astonishment.
President Kim Jae-chun burst into loud laughter, as if the worry that had weighed on his face moments earlier had never existed.
"Hahaha! Chairman Park has done something tremendous for the Republic of Korea once again!"